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1、6December2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchBuildingProductsHomebuildingResearchAnalystsCOMMENTSusanMaklari2123253134susan.maklari@credit-suisse.comMappingOuttheTaxPlanChristopherKalata2123256654■BroaderImpactofProposedTaxReformwillLikelybeNomina
2、l:christopher.kalata@credit-suisse.comAlthoughthedetailssurroundingtheproposedtaxlegislationremainaworkAmandaLuperinprogress,weframestateandcountylevelexposuretopotentialchanges2123252690amanda.luper@credit-suisse.comintheproperty,mortgageinterest,sa
3、les,andincometaxdeductions.Giventhehighlylocalizednatureofthehousingmarketandrelatedfactorscurrentlybeingdebated,theimpactwillvarysignificantlyamongspecificindividualsandgeographies.Basedonthedataweanalyzed,Hawaii,CaliforniaandMassachusettswillbemost
4、affectedbyalowermortgageinterestdeductioncapwhileNewYork,NewJerseyandConnecticutresidentswillfeelthegreatesthitfromtheeliminationofpropertytaxdeductions.Assuch,wedon'texpectthesechangestoderailthebroaderhousingupturn.■TheDevilisintheHousingMarketDeta
5、ils:Onatrailing12-monthbasisthroughOctober,themediansingle-familyexistinghomepricewas~$245,500,wellbelowtheHouse’sproposed$500,000mortgageinterestdeductibilitycap.Only9.4%ofowner-occupiedhomeshaveamortgagegreaterthan$500,000anditisestimatedlessthan25
6、%takethisdeduction.Inaddition,just4.9%ofhomeownerspaypropertytaxesabovethe$10,000threshold.Wenotethebuildersunderourcoverage(ex.Toll)hadanaveragesellingpriceof$385,000in3Q,up4.3%yearoveryear.Californiaaccountedforanaverageof12%ofunitclosings,rangingf
7、rom5%forDHIandPHMto26%forKBH.Moreover,thehomebuyingdecisionisoftendrivenbylifechangingeventswithtaxesgenerallyoflesserconcern.Ultimately,whilethepassageofthetaxreformbillcouldfurthertheregionalshiftalreadyunderway,weexpectthistobegradual.■Flexibility
8、inNewHomeConstructionAllowsforBuilderAdvantage:Lookingout,werecognizetherisksassociatedwithfurtherreducingaffordability.Shouldtheimpactofthesechangesbegreaterthanexpected,wenotethatbuilderscanmakeadjustmentstotheirofferings,includingdecontentinghomes
