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1、12、DoubleBottomRESULTSSNAPSHOTAppearanceAdownwardpricetrendbottomsout,rises,thenbottomsagainbeforeclimbing.ReversalOrConsolidationShort-term(upto3months)bullishreversalFailureRate64%FailureRateifwaitedforbreakout3%AverageRise40%,withmostlikelyrisebetween20and30%.VolumeTrendDownwarduntilbreakoutTh
2、rowbacks68%Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget68%SurprisingFindingBottomsclosertogethershowlargergainsSeealsoHead-and-ShouldersBottoms,Complex;HornBottomsPerhapsthebiggestsurprisewithdoublebottomsisthehighfailurerateat64%.Onlyathirdoftheformationsclassifyastruedoublebottoms.Theyaretheonesthatha
3、vepricesrisingabovetheconfirmationpoint,whichisthehighesthighbetweenthetwolows.Thefailureratetumblestojust3%ifonewaitsforconfirmation.Onlythoseformationswithconfirmedbreakoutsareevaluatedinthisstudy.雙底形態(tài)失敗幾率高達64%。只有三分之一可以稱為真正的雙底。它們是價格穿越確認點的，兩底之間最高價位。確認之后的失敗率驟降到3%。本書只研究突破確認的雙底。Theaverageriseis40%b
4、utistemperedbyathirdoftheformationshavinggainslessthan15%.Thesesmallrisesarebalancedbyathirdoftheformationsshowinggainsover45%.Themostlikelyriseisbetween20%and30%,relativelyhighforbullishformations.平均漲幅40%。三分之一收益低于15%。三分之一超過45%。最常見的是20%-30%。Throwbacksoccur68%ofthetime,suggestingitiswisetowaitfora
5、throwbackandinvestoncepricesturnupward.Insomecases,waitingforathrowbackcansaveyoufrommakinganunprofitabletrade.68%的情況下會發(fā)生回調(diào)。明智的策略師等待回調(diào)然后介入。Asurprisingfindingisthatbottomsclosertogetheroutperformthosespacedfartherapart.TheStatisticssectionofthischapterexaminesthisinmoredetail.一個令人驚奇的發(fā)現(xiàn)是底部接近的雙底表現(xiàn)比疏
6、遠的要好。TourWhatdoesadoublebottomlooklike?Figure12.1showsagoodexampleofadoublebottom.Pricesreachahighinmid-Marchthenheadlower.Forthenext3months,pricescontinuedowninasteadydeclinetodielowinJune.Volumepicksupaspricesnearthelowthenpegthemeteratover1.1millionsharesonJune18,thedaypricesreachalowof12.69.F
7、romtheMarchhigh,thestockdeclines47%in3months.Thehighvolumemarkstheturningpointandthestockmovesupward.However,aretestofthelowisinstoreandpricesroundoverandheaddownagain.InlateAugust,pricesmakeanotherlowwhenthestockdrops
