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1、1FEBRUARY2011mckinseyglobalinstituteTheeraofcheapcapitaldrawstoacloseInterestratesarerisinginthelongterm.Businesseswillhavetoadapt,whilegovernmentsmustpreventaneraofcreepingfinancialprotectionism.RichardDobbsandMichaelSpence2Theglobaleconomyfacesadilemma.Attemptstob
2、oostgrowthhaveloweredinterestratesinadvancedeconomies.Theresultinghotmoneyhasmovedexchangeratesoutoflinewithfundamentals,creatinginflationandassetappreciationinthedevelopingworld.Accumulationofforeignreservesandtheimpositionofbarrierstoinwardcapitalflowshavebeguntor
3、eplacetariffsandquotasinthetradeprotectionismarsenalsofgovernments.Yetevenasbrewingcurrencywarsthreatenfull-blowntradeconflicts,wemustrememberonefact:thismomentwillnotlast.The30-yeareraofprogressivelycheapercapitalisnearinganend.Theglobaleconomywillsoonhavetocopewit
4、htoolittlecapital,nottoomuch.Andworriesabouthotcapitalmovingtooquicklyintoemergingmarketscouldsoonbereplacedbyaneraoffinancialprotectionism—inwhichgovernmentsrestrictoutflowsofcapitalasadefenseagainstrisinginterestratesforcorporationsandconsumers.Since1980,differenc
5、esinthecostofcapitalinmostcountrieshaveconvergedasfinancialmarketsglobalizedandriskpremiumsindevelopingcountriesfell.Capitalbecameplentiful,andlong-terminterestratesdeclinedtoo—primarilyasaresultoffallinginvestmentinassetssuchasinfrastructureandmachinery.Globalinves
6、tmentfelldramatically,creatingadeclineinthedemandforcapitalsubstantiallylargerthanthegrowthinsupplycreatedbyAsiancurrent-accountsurpluses.Inotherwords,the“savingglut”sooftencitedasacauseforlowinterestratesreallyresultedfromadeclineinglobalinvestment.Today,however,th
7、istrendisreversing.AcrossAfrica,Asia,andLatinAmerica,rapidurbanizationisincreasingthedemandforroads,water,power,housing,andfactories.Globalinvestmentdemandwillnowriseconsiderablyupto2030,reachinglevelsnotseensincethepostwarreconstructionofEuropeandJapan.Theglobalapp
8、etitetosave,however,isunlikelytoriseinstep,forseveralreasons.Chinaplanstoencouragemoredomesticconsumption.Spendingwillriseaspopulationsage
