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1、``內(nèi)容摘要施工導(dǎo)流標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的選擇是水利水電工程建設(shè)的重大問(wèn)題，是施工總進(jìn)度安排的主要影響因素。它既影響工程的造價(jià)，又影響主體工程的施工安全和工期。利用最大熵原理推導(dǎo)了超標(biāo)洪水間隔時(shí)間的熵概率密度函數(shù)模型，在此基礎(chǔ)上給出了施工導(dǎo)流超標(biāo)洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率的計(jì)算方法。利用MATLAB軟件針對(duì)具體工程實(shí)例進(jìn)行了計(jì)算，并與傳統(tǒng)的假定為威布爾分布進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析。結(jié)果表明，該方法精度較高，且算法簡(jiǎn)便、便于應(yīng)用。分析了導(dǎo)流工程中的水文不確定性和水力不確定性。利用Monte-Carlo方法抽樣，擬優(yōu)選擇泄流流量的最佳概率分布
2、。結(jié)果表明，泄流流量的最佳概率分布為正態(tài)分布或三角分布。本文利用最大熵方法推導(dǎo)了施工導(dǎo)流全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率的計(jì)算方法，編制MATLAB程序進(jìn)行了計(jì)算，與JC法及Monte-Carlo法進(jìn)行了對(duì)比，表明該方法精度較高，且計(jì)算量較小。本文分析了導(dǎo)流方案決策中各決策目標(biāo)，介紹了權(quán)重計(jì)算的各種方法，利用定性和定量相結(jié)合的方法確定權(quán)重，建立了基于理想模式識(shí)別方法的決策模型。決策算例計(jì)算及權(quán)重敏感性分析表明，該方法是有效可行的。`````````關(guān)鍵詞：施工導(dǎo)流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析多目標(biāo)決策最大熵法`````````II`
3、````````AbstractTheoptimalselectionofconstrctiondivertionstandardexistsinthewholeprogressofhydroelecctricpowerengineering,anditisthemainfactorofplanninggeneralconstrctionprogress.Theoptimalselectioninfluencestheprojectcost,theconstructionsafetyandperi
4、od.Anentropyprobabilitydensityfunctionmodelofover-levelfloodintervalisderivedbytheuseofmaximumentropyprinciple.Onthisbasis，themethodforcalculatingover-levelfloodriskrateispresented.Inaddition,thecalculationiscarriedoutbyuseofMATLABaimingatpracticalpro
5、ject,whichiscomparedwithtraditionalmethodofassumingWeibulldistribution.Theresultsshowsthatthemethodisofhighaccuracy,anditissimpleinarithmeticsandconvenientinapplicationaswell.Thispaperanalyzeshydrologicuncertaintyandhydraulicuncertaintyofthediversionp
6、roject.Thispaperselectsbestprobabilitydistributionofpeak-flowbyMonte-Carlomethod.Resultsshowthatbestprobabilitydistributionofpeak-flowisNormaldistributionorDeltadistribution.Computingmethodofoverallriskrateisderivedbytheuseofmaximumentropyprinciple,th
7、ecalculationiscarriedoutbyuseofMATLABaimingatpracticalproject,whichiscomparedwithJCmethodandMonte-Carlomethod.Theresultsshowthatthemethodisofhighaccuracy,anditissimpleinarithmetics.Thispaperanalysesthedecisionobjectsofoptimizingstandardofconstructiond
8、iversion,describesthevariousmethodsofcalculatingtheweight,determinestheweightbyqualitativeandquantitativemethods,establishesdecisionmodelbasedonpatternidealrecognition.Itshowsthatthedecisionmodeliseffectivethroughexamplecalculationandweight-se
