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1、《糧食安全與耕地保護(hù)》《糧食安全與耕地保護(hù)》課題報(bào)告[全文]/天則經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所目錄《糧食安全與耕地保護(hù)》課題報(bào)告前言................................................4第一章概論................................................61.1對(duì)糧食安全概念的理解.......................................61.1.1國際視角.............................
2、.........61.1.2國內(nèi)視角以及本課題的概念................................81.2問題的提出.........................................81.2.1背景.............................................81.2.2問題的提出..........................................121.3邏輯框架與結(jié)構(gòu)安排......................
3、.................13第二章糧食安全的測(cè)定——糧食缺口....................172.1中國糧食供求現(xiàn)狀...............................172.2統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中的歷年中國糧食缺口..............182.2.1方法一:糧食需求與糧食生產(chǎn)的差額...........182.2.2方法二:糧食凈進(jìn)口與庫存變化之和..............212.2.3根據(jù)美國農(nóng)業(yè)部數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算的供需缺口............232.3本課題的方法..
4、................................252.4計(jì)算結(jié)果.......................................262.4.1糧食缺口:數(shù)據(jù)Ⅰ............................262.4.2糧食缺口:數(shù)據(jù)Ⅱ.............................292.4.3糧食缺口:數(shù)據(jù)Ⅲ..........................312.5小結(jié)...................................3
5、3第三章解決我國糧食短缺的國內(nèi)途徑.....................453.1引言......................................453.2中國糧食需求狀況及預(yù)測(cè)...........................463.2.1糧食需求分用途狀況........................................473.2.2糧食需求預(yù)測(cè)...............................523.3糧食生產(chǎn)中的制度和科技因素.......
6、........533.4糧食生產(chǎn)各要素之間的替代關(guān)系...................553.4.1問題.....................................553.4.2方法.....................................553.4.3產(chǎn)出彈性計(jì)算...........................563.4.4在各種播種面積減少情況下為彌補(bǔ)糧食歉收所需的投入增加...583.5庫存對(duì)平滑糧食供給波動(dòng)的分析..................
7、.................593.6結(jié)論.................................59第四章解決我國糧食短缺的國際途徑......................614.1背景..............................................614.1.1我國糧食貿(mào)易與世界糧食價(jià)格的相關(guān)性.............................614.1.2問題的分析框架............................622《糧食
8、安全與耕地保護(hù)》課題報(bào)告4.2國際糧食供給充分性.....................624.2.1世界糧食總產(chǎn)量不斷增加.............624.2.2我國谷物產(chǎn)量與世界產(chǎn)量波動(dòng)的相關(guān)系數(shù)較低.........634.3出口創(chuàng)匯充足...............................634.3.1我國出口創(chuàng)匯狀況...............................................634.3.2購買缺口糧食的外匯數(shù)量.........