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1、1August2017????CommoditiesunearthedEQUITIES?METALS&MININGCopper:ChinascrapimportbanandstrongdemandliftcopperpricesGLOBAL?CopperpricesjumpedonnewsthatChinawillbancopperJeffYuan*scrapimportsstartingin2019HeadofHK/ChinaMetals&MiningEquityResearchTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorpo
2、rationLimitedjeffsyuan@hsbc.com.hk?Wethinktherecentpricerallyispartlyjustifiedbystrong+85239417010ChinesemacrofiguresaswellasconcernsoverimportbanJonathanBrandt,CFALatAmMetals&MiningAnalystHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc?Ourlong-termcopperpriceforecastisunchangedatUSD3.10/lbJonathan.l.
3、brandt@us.hsbc.com+12125254499Copperpricejumpsonscrapimportban:ThecopperpriceroseaboveUSD6400/tDavidPleming*HeadofEMEAMetalsMiningontheLME,upmorethan7%overthepastweek,mainlydrivenbynewsthatChinaHSBCSecurities(SouthAfrica)(Pty)Ltdwillbancategory7copperscrapimports,suchasscrapmo
4、torsandwires,startingindavid.pleming@za.hsbc.com+271167642282019(CRUreportsthatscrapprocessorsthatfailenvironmentalinspectionthisyearwillbeforcedtostopimportingimmediately).Inourview,themarketisconcerned*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisthatthiswillleadt
5、osignificantlylesscopperscrapsupply,whichwillrequirehighernotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsrefinedcopperimportsinChinatooffsettheimbalance.Wethinkconcernsrelatingtothebanlookoverplayed:First,thebantargetscategory7scrap,whichismainlylowgradecopperscrap,suchasscr
6、apwireandscrapmotors,whichrequiresdismantlingandprocessingbeforeitcanbeusedbysmelters.Chinaimportedc3.3mtofcopperscrapin2016,ofwhichCategory7scrapaccountedforc60%,orc2mt.Duetoitslowgradenature(15-20%),actualcontainedmetalisonlyaround300ktto400kt,equivalenttojust1.5%ofthe23mtco
7、ppermarketwhich,theoretically,wouldbeenoughtomoveoursupply/demandforecastsintoaslightdeficitinthecomingyearsifthesescrapimportsdisappearedaltogether,whichisunlikely(seep3).Second,webelievethiswillforcecategory7scraptobedismantledandprocessedoutsideofChinaandconvertedintocatego
8、ry6(highergrade)forimportpost2018.Chinesescraprecyclingcompan
