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1、山東省耕地資源數(shù)量變化對糧食安全的影響分析 摘要:以山東省耕地資源變化為研究對象,在分析1978-2012年耕地資源和糧食產(chǎn)量變化的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用最小人均耕地面積、耕地壓力模型以及預(yù)測理論研究耕地資源變化和糧食產(chǎn)量之間的關(guān)系,預(yù)測耕地資源的變化對糧食安全產(chǎn)生的影響,探究保障糧食安全的耕地?cái)?shù)量底線。結(jié)果表明:1978-2012年山東省耕地面積、糧食產(chǎn)量出現(xiàn)波動變化趨勢,人口在逐年增加,有一段時期最小人均耕地面積和耕地壓力指數(shù)增加趨勢明顯,說明此段時期山東省糧食供需差距增大,糧食安全受到威脅。未來15年內(nèi)人口逐年增加,耕地面積和人均耕地面積減少,糧食產(chǎn)量逐年增加,最小人均耕地面積和耕
2、地壓力指數(shù)呈下降趨勢,糧食安全不會受到威脅,主要是由于耕地生產(chǎn)能力的提高,耕地承載壓力減小。研究結(jié)果為進(jìn)一步解決山東省耕地合理利用和糧食安全之間的問題提供依據(jù)關(guān)鍵詞:山東??;耕地資源變化;最小人均耕地面積;耕地壓力指數(shù);糧食安全中圖分類號:F301文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識號:A文章編號:1001-4942(2016)09-0162-06AbstractUsingthechangeofcultivatedlandresourcesinShandongProvinceasresearchobject,basedontheanalysisofcultivatedlandandgrainyieldcha
3、ngein1978-2012,therelationshipbetweenthechangeofcultivatedlandresourcesandgrainyieldwasstudiedusingtheminimumpercapitaarablelandarea,cultivatedlandpressuremodelandpredictiontheory,theimpactofchangeofcultivatedlandresourcesonfoodsecuritywaspredicted,andthebottomlineofcultivatedlandquantityguar
4、anteeingthefoodsecuritywasresearched.Theresultsshowedthatfrom1978to2012,thecultivatedareaandgrainyieldinShandongProvincetookonfluctuationchangetrend,thepopulationwasincreasingyearbyyear.Duringaperiodoftime,theminimumpercapitaarablelandareaandcultivatedlandpressureindexincreasedobviously,which
5、indicatedthatthegrainsupplyanddemandgapofShandongProvinceincreasedinthisperiod,andthefoodsecuritywasunderthreat.Thepredictionresultsshowedthatinthenext15years,thepopulationwouldincreaseyearbyyear,thecultivatedlandareaandpercapitaarablelandareawoulddecrease,thegrainyieldwouldincreasewithyears,
6、theminimumpercapitaarablelandareaandcultivatedlandpressureindexwouldshowdecliningtendency,thusthefoodsecuritywouldnotunderthreatmainlyduetotheincreaseofproductioncapacityofarablelandandthedecreaseofpressurethatarablelandbearing.Theseresultswouldprovidebasisforfurthersettlingtheproblembetweenr
7、ationaluseofcultivatedlandandfoodsafetyinShandongProvince.KeywordsShandongProvince;Changeincultivatedlandresources;Minimumpercapitaarablelandarea;Cultivatedlandpressureindex;Foodsecurity耕地是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)生活的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),但隨著社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,城市化和工業(yè)化進(jìn)程不斷提高,耕地非農(nóng)化和生態(tài)退耕還林等導(dǎo)致耕