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《基于客流激發(fā)能級模型的鐵路客流短期預(yù)測研究》由會員上傳分享，免費在線閱讀，更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容在學(xué)術(shù)論文-天天文庫。
1、北京交通大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于客流激發(fā)能級模型的鐵路客流短期預(yù)測研究姓名：馬彥祥申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：系統(tǒng)工程指導(dǎo)教師：劉軍20080501ABSTRA(了ABSTRACTRailwaypassengersflowforecastingisallimportantbasisofpassengertrafficorganizingandaneffectivewayforthepassengertrafficenterprisetograspthetrendsanddemandoftransportationmanetdevelopment．Thispaperfocusesonshort-term
2、passengervolumeforecastingproblembetweentwocities．Theobjectiveistoinvestigateappropriateforecastingmethodsinordertoguaranteetheprecision．Thispaperbeginstheresearchworkfromobservingthefluctuationcharacteristicsofshort·termpassengerrailwayvolumebetweenorigination—cityanddestination．city,andfindssomesp
3、ecialpropertiesofthevolumechange．Onthisbasis，thepapergivesaconclusionthatmethodsbasedoncombiningtimeseriesanalyzingandqualitativeapproachshouldbeusedinshort—termpassengervolumeforecasting．Short-termRailwayPassengerFlowForecastingmethodBasedonPassengerFlowExcitedLevelsModelisenlightenedbyBoer’Satomic
4、．modelinphysics．Themodelincludetwokeyparts，theoneisevaluationlevelsandtheincrementinexcitedstates．theotheroneistimeseriesforecastingingroundstates．Inthestudyofevaluationlevelsandincrementinexcitedstates。thefactorsofpassengerflowtransitionisanalyzedatfirst，thenFuzzycomprehensiveevaluationisappliedtoe
5、valuatethesefactors．Toovercometheshortageofhistoricaldata，theincrementoflearningsamplesalegotbyclusteringanalysisthetimeseriesdatafromTicketsalerecord．IIlthestudyoftimeseriesforecastingingroundstates，themethodforrecognitionandprocessingsingularvaluesisproposed，thenLS—SVMisappliedtoforecast．Inorderto
6、improveefficiencyandgeneralizationabilityofforecasting，geneticalgorithmisappliedtoselectparametersofLS．SVM．Finally,themethodisappliedtotheactualpassengerflowvolumedailydataofGuangzhoutoWuhan．Themodelandmethodsareeffectivebythetestofexample．KEYWORDS：railwaypassengertransport；short—termforecasting；Lea
7、stsquaressupportvectormachine；PassengerflowexcitedlevelsCLASSNO：學(xué)位論文版權(quán)使用授權(quán)書本學(xué)位論文作者完全了解北京交通大學(xué)有關(guān)保留、使用學(xué)位論文的規(guī)定。特授權(quán)北京交通大學(xué)可以將學(xué)位論文的全部或部分內(nèi)容編入有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫進行檢索，并采用影印、縮印或掃描等復(fù)制手段保存、匯編以供查閱和借閱。同意學(xué)校向國家有關(guān)部門或機構(gòu)送交論文的復(fù)印件和磁盤。(保
