房地產(chǎn)行業(yè):審慎樂觀,維持行業(yè)標配評級.docx

房地產(chǎn)行業(yè):審慎樂觀,維持行業(yè)標配評級.docx

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時間:2018-12-01

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1、DecelerationcontinuesIndustrydatareleasedon14Nov2018showedacontinuousdropofhomesalesandafurtherretreatingofpropertyinvestmentgrowth.Indetails:1)Thesalesvolumesofnewly-builtresidentialfellforthesecondmonthinOctwiththeYoYdeclineenlargedto1.3%from0.8%inSep,draggingtheYo

2、YgrowthofJan-Oct2018to2.8%;2)PropertyinvestmentgrowthontheYoYbasissloweddownforathirdmonthtoyearlylowat7.7%,vspeaklevelat13.2%seeninthisJulyorthegrowthof9.7%forthefirsttenmonths;3)Thenewstartsgrowthretreatedaccordinglyto15%inOctfromrecenthighat29%inJuly,sendingtheytd

3、growthslightlydownto16.3%from16.4%onemonthearlier;4)Intermsofthecompletedarea,theYoYdeclinefurtherenlargedto21%whiletheytddrophencemaintainedatdouble-digitof13%;5)Landpurchasegrowthnarrowedto12%YoYbyareaor10%YoYbyvalueinOctober,vs.16%and19%inSepor15%and21%inJan-Oct.F

4、ig1:China’snewhomesalesvolume,YoYchangeFig2:China’snewhomesalesvalue,YoYchange100%200%75%150%50%100%25%50%0%0%-25%Oct/07Apr/08Oct/08Apr/09Oct/09Apr/10Oct/10Apr/11Oct/11Apr/12Oct/12Apr/13Oct/13Apr/14Oct/14Apr/15Oct/15Apr/16Oct/16Apr/17Oct/17Apr/18Oct/18-50%Oct/07Apr

5、/08Oct/08Apr/09Oct/09Apr/10Oct/10Apr/11Oct/11Apr/12Oct/12Apr/13Oct/13Apr/14Oct/14Apr/15Oct/15Apr/16Oct/16Apr/17Oct/17Apr/18Oct/18-50%%ChgYoYofNewHomeTransactionVolumesNationwide,YTD%ChgYoYofNewHomeTransactionVolumesNationwide,Monthly%ChgYoYofNewHomeSalesValueNationw

6、ide,YTD%ChgYoYofNewHomeSalesValueNationwide,MonthlySource:NBS,SWSResearchSource:NBS,SWSResearchFig3:China’spropertyinvestment,YoYchangeFig4:China’snewstartsfloorarea,YoYChange50%250%40%200%30%150%20%100%10%50%0%0%Oct/07Apr/08Oct/08Apr/09Oct/09Apr/10Oct/10Apr/11Oct/11

7、Apr/12Oct/12Apr/13Oct/13Apr/14Oct/14Apr/15Oct/15Apr/16Oct/16Apr/17Oct/17Apr/18Oct/18Oct/07Apr/08Oct/08Apr/09Oct/09Apr/10Oct/10Apr/11Oct/11Apr/12Oct/12Apr/13Oct/13Apr/14Oct/14Apr/15Oct/15Apr/16Oct/16Apr/17Oct/17Apr/18Oct/18-10%-50%Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantd

8、isclosures%ChgYoYofChina'sPropertyInvestment,YTD%ChgYoYofChina'sPropertyInvestment,MonthlySource:NBS,SWSResearchSource:NBS,SWSResea

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