張學(xué)孔張學(xué)孔

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1、AGENDA?ChallengesofUrbanDevelopmentinDevelopingCountries/RegionsMythofUrbanRailRapid?PublicTransportation,RailTransitandTransitSysteminTransitorientedDevelopment(TOD)?RationaleofBusRapidTransitandTransitionEconomiesBRTOD張學(xué)孔臺灣大學(xué)土木系教授?ConcludingRemarksS.K.JasonCHANG,Ph.D.Professor,Na

2、tionalTaiwanUniversityskchang@ntu.edu.twIssuesinUrbanDevelopmentandTransportationSystemsFurtherChallenges更大挑戰(zhàn)òCongestion擁擠?Duringnexttwodecades,theworld’sòAirPollution空氣污染populationwillincreaseby2billions,andòNoise噪音95%ofthemwillbelivingindevelopingandòEnergy能源消耗undevelopedregions.

3、人口增長òSafety/Security安全?UrbanizationwillbringmillionsofpeopleintocitiesandhowtomeettheirmobilityòHealth公共健康demandsisachallenge.城市化?NeedsforMobilityandMotorization.行動力、機動化需求1TransportationSolutions?Highway-orientedDevelopment??Car-orientedDevelopment??Highway-orientedDevelopment??小汽車

4、/公路為導(dǎo)向之發(fā)展政策??Car-orientedDevelopment??NO!!這是後果小汽車/公路為導(dǎo)向之發(fā)展政策??絕對不可行!!ObviouslyNO!!!GrowingOilDependenceandEnergySecurity?By2020,ChinawillimportOilUseinChina80%ofitsoildemand12)dbm10(yadr8epsler6rabn4oilliM2019992020Source:IEA2GrowingCarCulture??AnotherformofEquity?Travelbehaviorisi

5、nfluencedbycarculture…andHarmony?Thereisnoshowgirl/boyforpublictransport!Why?另一種「公平」?「和諧」?-小汽車文化影響旅運行為?Nomorelicense,-為什麼沒有公共運輸PLEASE!!帥哥美女??不要再發(fā)牌照了!!享受您的新車cn.autos.yahoo.comUseofautomobilesisOKforEffectsofPollutiononPublicRecreationandinOff-peakPeriodHealth空氣污染對健康/生產(chǎn)力的影響合理使用小汽車是可以

6、接受178,000Prematuredeaths早夭InTokyo,72%6,779,000tripsarePublicHospitalized&ER2.5%ofGDPTransportduring急診數(shù)量peakhours$840mi/yrcomparedwith4,537,000anaverageofOutpatient活動受限天數(shù)41%PT.346,000Labordayloss/呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病住院病例76,869,000RespiratoryillnessandAsthmaattack哮喘發(fā)作何支氣管炎Source:Harvard/EnergyFoun

7、dation3CO2TrendsinEUOurCitiesFacean交通部門對環(huán)境的影響?CO2EmissionsfromInternationalCompetitionCOemissiontrendsper2Transportationareexpectedtosector城市競爭力也必須考量risefast.140TOTAL10%ofShanghai’sGDPislostdueto?“Ifpresenttrendscontinue,130industrieindustytrafficcongestion.transportationwillbethem

8、ain120tertiairetertiary--A